Why the number of coronavirus vaccines is mostly good news

It rose from mid-September, when only 50% said they would be vaccinated.

However, a vaccine is not worth much if the Americans do not actually get it. A look at the voting trendline for a coronavirus vaccine and history suggests that, again, it’s mostly good news when it comes to people who are willing to get it.

As Gallup data reveals, people are more willing to get the vaccine than a few months ago. We see a similar trend in the data from Axios / Ipsos poll. In a slightly different question, 45% of Americans say they are likely to be vaccinated immediately as soon as possible. That is an increase from 38% in September.

When you dig deeper, you see that much of the concern with a vaccine has to do with safety and effectiveness. In the Axios / Ipsos poll, 68% of Americans said they would probably get the vaccine if they proved safe and effective by public health officials. Among the 42% of Americans who said they would not take the vaccination in the Gallup poll, 63% either cited a hasty timeline or waited to see if it was safe as the cause.

In other words, many people just want to know that the vaccine is safe and effective. If so, the percentage of people willing to be vaccinated is likely to increase.

Just the latest news on Pfizer and Moderna vaccines could increase the percentage willing to get the vaccination.

In the Axios / Ipsos poll conducted before Moderna published their initial findings, and after Pfizer’s initial findings (but before publishing more details and asking for emergency permission), 61% of Americans said they would take the vaccine if the drug companies told them it was at least 90% effective. This rose from the 45% baseline that said they would be vaccinated immediately without knowing more information in the same poll. The two companies have now said that their vaccines were 94.5% and 95% effective.

If 70% of the population got the vaccine, it could be huge to defeat the virus. A vaccine that covers 65% to 70% of the population is likely to get us population immunity through vaccination, according to the World Health Organization.
A look at the public opinion that Jonas Salk’s polio vaccine was to be tested indicates more potential good news. In an almost identical finding to Gallup’s latest coronavirus poll, 60% of those who had heard of the Gallup polio vaccine in May 1954 said they would take it. A similar percentage said they wanted their children to have it.

When the vaccine was shown to be effective, the required number of Americans received the vaccine.

The polio vaccine ended to be one of the most successful vaccination programs in world history. Within a few years, the number of new cases per year dropped from 15,000 to 100. America was able to eradicate what was once one of the worst epidemics in its history, and no case originated in the country for more than 40 years.

Now, of course, we do not know what the coronavirus vaccines will be like. History is only a guide.

Perhaps the most important variable to monitor over the next few months is a partial gap in coronavirus vaccinations. Right now there is not much of one. In a Gallup poll, 69% of Democrats and 49% of Republicans said they would be vaccinated against coronavirus if an FDA-approved vaccine was available right now at no cost. We’re getting closer 90-point holes about how Democrats and Republicans vote for president.

Hopefully, vaccine uptake is topical when the vaccine hits the market. Many lives can depend on it.

That is why it is so important for both Democratic and Republican leaders to back up the researchers if they say a vaccination is safe.


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